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            ASSIMILATION OF REAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA WITH THE GSI-HYBRID DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM TO IMPROVE TYPHOON FORECAST

            李泓  骆婧瑶  陈葆德  
            【摘要】:A hybrid GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation)-ETKF(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) data assimilation system has been recently developed for the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and tested with simulated observations for tropical cyclone(TC) forecast. This system is based on the existing GSI but with ensemble background information incorporated. As a follow-up, this work extends the new system to assimilate real observations to further understand the hybrid scheme. As a first effort to explore the system with real observations, relatively coarse grid resolution(27 km) is used. A case study of typhoon Muifa(2011) is performed to assimilate real observations including conventional in-situ and satellite data. The hybrid system with flow-dependent ensemble covariance shows significant improvements with respect to track forecast compared to the standard GSI system which in theory is three dimensional variational analysis(3DVAR). By comparing the analyses, analysis increments and forecasts, the hybrid system is found to be potentially able to recognize the existence of TC vortex, adjust its position systematically, better describe the asymmetric structure of typhoon Muifa and maintain the dynamic and thermodynamic balance in typhoon initial field. In addition, a cold-start hybrid approach by using the global ensembles to provide flow-dependent error is tested and similar results are revealed with those from cycled GSI-ETKF approach.
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